Iowa gets things started against FCS foe Eastern Illinois

NCAA Football Betting Lines

09/01/2010 - Iowa City, IA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The ninth-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes lift the lid on the 2010 season this Saturday, as they play host to the Panthers of Eastern Illinois in the first-ever meeting between the two teams.

Eastern Illinois, which plays its football out of the Ohio Valley Conference and is ranked 18th in the initial Football Championship Subdivision poll sponsored by The Sportsbook Betting Lines and Fathead.com, is coming off an 8-4 season in which it won the OVC title with a 6-2 mark.

The Panthers are playing a FBS school for the 27th time, with their last win coming in 2004 against Eastern Michigan. Iowa is the highest ranked foe EIU has ever faced. The Panthers are coached by Bob Spoo, who took over the team in 1987 and has a career mark 140-113-1 as the fourth-longest tenured coach (same school) in Division I.

The Hawkeyes, under the direction of head coach Kirk Ferentz, went 11-2 (6-2 in the Big Ten Conference) in 2009, and returns a wealth of talent on both sides of the ball so it's understandable if fans are excited about the prospect of their beloved team challenging for both the Big Ten and BCS titles.

Like most coaches, Ferentz doesn't want his team looking past the Panthers in this opener, "They are a well coached football team, disciplined and they play hard. We expect a very tough contest. All we have to do is look back to last year's opener and I don't think we have to say much more than that just in terms of what's in front for us."

Eastern Illinois, picked by many to finish atop the OVC this season, boasts 15 returning starters, including senior RB Mon Williams (191 carries, 870 yards, nine TDs). Unfortunately, Williams will miss at least this game with a strained knee. In his absence, expect QB Brandon Large to shoulder much of the offensive burden, despite this being his first Division I start.

Running back Jimmy Potempa (32 catches in 2009) is the team's top returning pass catcher, and he can expect to see his workload increase with Williams on the shelf. The offensive line features just two returning starters in OG Eric Zink and C Willie Henderson.

Defensively, the Panthers should be fine once they get past this game as standout performers like corners C.J. James and Rashad Haynes, DE Perry Burge and starting LBs Nick Nasti (83 tackles last year), Cory Leman (63 tackles) and Gordy Kickels (62 stops) all have the talent and experience to help the team achieve its goals.

Iowa averaged 23.5 ppg in '09, and upping that figure will be paramount to the team reaching its full potential this season. The return of six starters on offense, including QB Ricky Stanzi and RB Adam Robinson (Iowa freshman-record 834 rushing yards last season), should help reach that goal. Stanzi isn't the flashiest signal-caller out there, and he will need to make better decisions with the ball this fall after tossing 15 INTs in 11 games in 2009.

Helping Stanzi make plays down the field is a deep receiving corps that Ferentz says should make the difference between a sub par offensive showing, and one that causes opposing defensive coordinators plenty of sleepless nights.

"I think we have a chance to be better in the passing game, and you know, when you have that kind of experience, you hope that's a by product of the good production."

On the defensive side of the ball, expect to see a whole lot of DE Adrian Clayborn, who in 2009 logged 11.5 sacks, 20 TFLs, four fumble recoveries and was named the MVP of the Orange Bowl.

In addition to Clayborn's contributions, the Hawkeyes, who were absolutely dominant on defense last season in allowing a paltry 15.4 points and 276.5 yards per game, expect to get consistent efforts from guys like LB Jeremiah Hunter (89 tackles) and standout safeties Brett Greenwood and Tyler Sash.

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Big 12 Conference betting odds

Work left to do: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State

Texas joins Texas A&M and Kansas as locks after getting league win No. 11. Texas Tech greatly helped its own hopes and crippled OK State's with the two-point win Saturday. Is K-State the last reasonable hopeful? Could be an elimination match in Stillwater on Tuesday, at least for the Cowboys.

Work left to do:

Texas Tech [18-11 (7-7), RPI: 44, SOS: 12] A critical two-point win over OK State leaves the Red Raiders with Baylor and at Iowa State left. Get both and the Red Raiders likely are good to go. Get one and there could be some interesting comparisons with a K-State team that could finish two or three games "ahead" of them in the standings but doesn't have any of the quality wins Texas Tech has. Not a lot in nonconference play (against Arkansas in Little Rock being the best win, by far) to lean on.

Oklahoma State [18-9 (5-8), RPI: 50, SOS: 35] Still without a road win, the Cowboys now need to win two on the road just to get to .500 in conference play. It's hard to recall a team (OK, other than Clemson) falling so precipitously from lock status to almost certainly out of the NCAAs at this point. There are wins to be had in the last three, including a very big home game against K-State on Tuesday, but this team is reeling. Can you tell the pressure to win is getting to them with the way the final possession played out at Texas Tech? There are some good nonconference performances to lean on, specifically beating Missouri State and Syracuse on neutral floors and Pitt in OK City, but if the Pokes don't right this very, very soon, that won't be enough.

Kansas State [20-9 (9-5), RPI: 56, SOS: 96] It pays to be in the Big 12 North. The nine league wins are Colorado (twice), Missouri (twice), Iowa State (twice), Baylor, Nebraska and (a good one against) Texas. That helps explain the middling computer profile. The win over USC is nice, but the nonconference leaves a lot to be desired. The game at OK State in Stillwater on Tuesday is huge, as it could KO the Cowboys and leave K-State with a home date against Oklahoma with which to work.


Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.