Illini and Hoosiers duke it out in Big Ten brawl

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/09/2012 - Bloomington, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Illinois Fighting Illini are hoping a win tonight at No. 23 Indiana will give them a boost as they come down the home stretch in what has been a fairly odd season thus far.

Illinois is 16-7 on the year, but the bulk of those wins came against lesser competition during a non-conference slate that really only featured a couple of tough bouts. Since the start of Big Ten Conference play, the Illini are an even 5-5, and going back to the middle of December, they are just 6-7 in their last 13 games. Illinois dropped a 74-70 decision at home to Northwestern on Monday night, and coach Bruce Weber's club comes into this clash sporting a 2-3 record in true road tilts.

Indiana was one of the surprise stories during the first couple of months of the 2011-12 season, as coach Tom Crean's team jumped out to a 12-0 start, which included an upset of No. 1 Kentucky on December 10. Since the start of conference action however, the Hoosiers have split a dozen games, and have alternated wins and losses over the last few weeks. IU is coming off a 78-61 victory at Purdue, and the team will try to improve upon its stellar 13-1 home mark with a win tonight.

The all-time series between Illinois and Indiana is knotted at 83-83, but the Illini have won five of the last six meetings.

Illinois isn't the most explosive offensive team around, but the Illini certainly hold their own in netting 66.8 ppg on 44.9 percent field goal efficiency, which includes a 32.1 percent showing from three-point range. Defensively, the team allows just 61.3 ppg with foes converting a mere 41.0 percent of their total shots, but 35.7 percent of their long-range tries. UI boasts three double-digit scorers in the form of Brandon Paul (15.1 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 3.1 apg), Leonard Meyers (13.3 ppg, 8.0 rpg) and D.J. Richardson (12.2 ppg), but only Meyers, the team's starting center, is shooting at what anyone would consider an acceptable rate (.582). Paul and Meyers both hit for more than 20 points in the recent loss to Northwestern, with the latter also grabbing nine boards and blocking a pair of shots for good measure. Unfortunately for the Illini, even a 54.2 percent shooting performance couldn't offset a sizzling 60.4 percent effort put forth by the Wildcats, who scored 36 points in the paint, compared to 24 for Illinois.

Indiana is clearly the better of these two teams in terms of offensive efficiency, as the Hoosiers lead the Big Ten in scoring offense (78.5 ppg), field goal percentage (.495) and three-point FG percentage (.431). The club's defensive effort yields an average of 65.7 ppg, and opponents are hitting their field goal attempts just 41.9 percent of the time, and IU owns favorable margins in both rebounding (+3.9) and turnovers (+0.9). Freshman Cody Zeller (15.1 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 34 steals, 33 blocks) has been Indiana's most consistent performer this season, and he is one of four players currently averaging double digits in the scoring column. Christian Watford (12.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg), Jordan Hulls (12.1 ppg, 3.3 apg) and Victor Oladipo (10.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 37 steals) have all contributed, and Oladipo was high man for the Hoosiers in the recent win over Purdue, as he went 6-of-14 from the floor and 10-of-12 at the foul line to finish with 23 points. He also wound up with eight of the team's 53 rebounds in the game, and Zeller tallied 16 points and eight boards as well. Indiana shot just 41.8 percent from the field, but held the Boilermakers to 29.6 percent while claiming a 29-14 edge in points from the charity stripe.

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Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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